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Everyone assumes higher interest rates will devastate zero-yielding gold, leaving it far less attractive.
This premise led investors to avoid gold like the plague, and speculators to short sell it at wild record extremes.
But provocatively, history proves gold thrives in Fed-rate-hike cycles.
Gold will never pay dividends or interest, which makes нажмите чтобы перейти a sterile investment.
Presumably demand for yield-less assets will wane as rate hikes naturally force yields on bonds higher.
While this bearish gold thesis sounds perfectly logical, its core assumption is fatally flawed.
While gold has never offered a yield, investors all over the world have still flocked to it all throughout history.
While gold was infinitely outgunned on yields by literally everything that pays one, it still blasted 638% higher in the decade ending 5 August 2011.
While yielding absolutely nothing, gold still skyrocketed 2332% higher in the decade ending in January 1980!
Bond 5 were crazy-high then too.
Gold has never been a yield play, and never will be.
The widespread antipathy towards this leading alternative investment today on the idea that rising rates will slaughter it is simply a flimsy rationalization of popular bearishness.
Consider how silly this yield-trumps-all notion would be in the stock markets, where plenty of the hottest and most-adored stocks like Amazon and Netflix have never paid dividends.
Dividend-less stocks are sterile investments just like gold, yet Wall Street fawns on them.
Just like gold, their prices are determined by the intersection of trader supply and demand that has nothing to do with their zero-yielding nature.
Of course not, and that notion is just as tenuous applied to gold.
So how has zero-yielding gold performed during these past central-bank tightenings?
Are rate hikes really a threat to gold?
To find out, I downloaded nearly a half-century of daily Federal Funds Rate data directly from the Fed itself.
This FFR is the primary interest rate the Fed directly controls, what it sets its policy target for when it hikes or cuts rates.
The federal-funds market is where banks lend and borrow cash deposits on an overnight basis that they hold at the Federal Reserve.
And there were a lot of them, the FOMC changed its federal-funds-rate target 251 times in the 46 years since.
I found that high number pretty surprising.
The FOMC holds 8 policy meetings per year, equating to around 368 over that entire span.
And it probably is, since the FOMC sometimes chooses to change rates between meetings when volatile market conditions sufficiently frighten its members.
But there has been an abundance of Fed rate источник статьи over the past half-century, a large sample size to see how zero-yielding gold has fared in their midst.
Since investors and speculators today are very worried about how gold will perform in a sustained Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle, I ignored нажмите чтобы прочитать больше FFR hikes surrounded by cuts.
Since 1971 the Fed has made 6 lone rate hikes bracketed by cuts.
And there were 6 more episodes where the FFR was raised two times back-to-back but was then reduced again.
I decided to generously define a Fed-rate-hike cycle as 3 or more consecutive increases in the federal-funds rate with no decreases.
By this 3-or-more definition, the Federal Reserve has executed 11 rate-hike cycles since 1971.
While this red daily federal-funds-rate data is directly from the Fed нажмите чтобы перейти, it looks a lot more volatile than most would expect.
This is because the FFR is technically a free-market interest rate determined by the federal-funds supply and demand from commercial banks.
For each Fed-rate-hike cycle, 4 key metrics are noted.
This really defies prevailing consensus.
Instead gold actually rallied through 6 of the 11 modern Fed-rate-hike cycles!
And at average gains seen within these exact rate-hike-cycle spans of a staggering +61.
And in the other 5 Fed-rate-hike cycles where gold indeed lost ground as everyone expects today, the losses were comparatively moderate.
The average losses over these exact rate-hike-cycle spans were just 13.
Between June 2004 and June 2006, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark federal-funds rate by a total вот ссылка 425 basis points in 17 separate hikes!
This more than quintupled the FFR from 1.
That last rate-hike cycle was exceptionally intense.
It was the first since the extreme rate hikes of the 1970s with over 10 hikes, over 400 basis points of hiking, and lasting over a year.
So if there was ever a modern rate-hike cycle that should have obliterated gold as everyone expects today, that last https://realgost.ru/100/avtomaticheskiy-viklyuchatel-keaz-optidin-bm63-om4-reg-1p-b-6ka.html one was sure it.
And those strong gold gains happened while the federal-funds rate soared all the way back over 5%.
And provocatively, that last rate-hike cycle was more extreme in every way than the Fed is telegraphing its next one will be.
Fed officials are very https://realgost.ru/100/vodonagrevatel-ballu-bwhs-100-proof.html about the liftoff from ZIRP sparking in the US equity markets, so they are planning very slow hikes.
After every other FOMC meeting, the Fed publishes the economic projections of FOMC voting members who actually set the FFR target levels along with the presidents of the regional Fed banks.
And at its recent mid-June meeting, the latest projections by the Fed officials 5 make these decisions put the FFR around just 1.
That frames these coming rate hikes.
At 25bp 5 hike which is exactly what the Fed did in the mid-2000s, this would take 14 hikes.
Such a rate-hike cycle would be less extreme than the last one in every way, including the total FFR increase, the duration of the tightening cycle, and the 5 of individual rate hikes.
And I suspect this coming rate-hike cycle will prove even more moderate than that.
Instead it will likely spread the rate hikes out, skipping meetings.
That makes for a much-shallower trajectory of rising rates.
The Bernanke Fed started releasing these projections at every other FOMC meeting back детальнее на этой странице April 2011, in order to promote transparency.
They started including FFR projections in January 2012.
And back then, these elite Fed officials forecast the federal-funds rate averaging 4%+ after 2014!
That was sure wrong.
The key point here is since gold rallied so strongly in that last major rate-hike cycle in the mid-2000s, it should have no problem rallying again in the far-milder coming rate-hike cycle.
And provocatively, gold has actually done the best in the most extreme rate-hike cycles in modern history.
The most extreme on record by every metric ran over 34.
And that was for a mind-boggling total FFR increase of 1075 basis points.
With the federal-funds-rate target skyrocketing all the way up to 15.
So if there was ever an ideal case for higher yields sucking all the capital out of gold investment, that was it.
Yet it did just the opposite, rocketing 178.
There was another extreme rate-hike cycle running over 17.
And again instead of collapsing as traders today would assume, this metal soared 113.
Obviously something other than yields is driving gold demand!
But instead it skyrocketed, making gold bulls rich beyond their wildest dreams.
Gold blasted an astounding 2332% higher over a decade where the Fed hiked its FFR target from 3.
Investors flocked to gold so ссылка in that extreme-rising-rate environment that they fomented a popular speculative mania in it.
Provocatively 2 of the 5 rate-hike cycles where gold actually fell were in the immediate aftermath of that parabolic gold surge and inevitable subsequent collapse.
A third rate-hike cycle where gold lost ground happened in the mid-1970s after another episode of incredible gold strength.
So did the fourth and fifth ones in the mid-1980s and late 1980s.
So out of the 5 Fed-rate-hike cycles where gold has actually fallen, all happened just after major secular gold highs.
Gold has never fallen in a Fed-rate-hike cycle when starting from low levels.
And since gold just slumped to a brutal 5.
So the evidence of history overwhelmingly supports just the opposite of what prevailing wisdom argues today.
Rather than Fed-rate-hike cycles being super-bearish for zero-yielding gold, they have actually proven very bullish for it!
Odds are gold is on the verge of a major rate-hike upleg.
But how can 5 be?
Gold yields nothing, zero, zilch, nada.
Why on earth would any investor want to buy gold when they could instead own a great American company like Netflix trading at 237x earnings, or US Treasuries yielding 2.
Did I mention gold pays no dividends or interest?
The reason gold investment demand soars in rising-rate environments is actually quite simple.
Fed rate hikes have serious adverse impacts on stock and bond markets, which is the very reason the FOMC has fearfully kept ZIRP in place for an unbelievable 6.
When the Fed initially went ZIRP for the first time in its 95-year-history at that решетка АМР с клапаном воздуха 750*350, it swore up and down that ZIRP was a temporary measure.
Rising rates are devastating for stocks, especially if the stock markets are high and overvalued, for multiple reasons.
Higher-rate environments lead to lower overall demand throughout the economy as debt-service costs climb for everyone.
And lower demand leads to slumping corporate sales and profits, which ramps up price-to-earnings ratios to make stock markets look even more expensive.
They doubled down on these stock buybacks by borrowing hundreds of billions https://realgost.ru/100/cry-lvm-crm-smesitel-dlya-rakovini-belbagno-crystal.html />When the Fed rate hikes kill ZIRP, borrowing costs for corporations will rise which will make borrowing money to buy back stocks far less attractive and viable.
When the torrent of ZIRP-financed buybacks slows, the dominant source of stock demand in recent years will wane.
That will make the stock markets very susceptible to a long-overdue selloff.
Higher rates are super-dangerous for stocks.
Since bond yields will rise in concert with the federal-funds rate, bonds will become more competitive with the big blue-chip companies that pay healthy dividends.
These stocks are yield plays, so they will see serious selling as bond yields eclipse their dividends.
Fed-rate-hike cycles are very damaging to stock markets, especially overvalued and overextended продолжить чтение, in a variety of direct and indirect ways.
And existing bonds will fare even worse.
That means every rate hike will lead to losses in principal for bond investors, something most of them consider unacceptable.
Bonds get crushed when rates are ссылка на подробности />With both stocks and bonds suffering serious selling pressure when the Fed is in a tightening cycle, gold really shines.
This alternative investment generally moves counter to the stock markets, so when they are weak is when investors rush to park 5 in this safe-haven asset.
Лоток DKC FC5010G 50 х 100 2000 мм not only holds its value as stocks and bonds fall, but appreciates as investment demand for it ramps dramatically with stocks suffering.
Historically gold fares the best when the stock markets are faring the worst.
If this upcoming Fed-rate-hike cycle seriously weighs on 5 stock markets, which is all but guaranteed in light of their lofty overvalued levels today, gold investment demand is going to grow dramatically.
And the biggest gains to be won when gold returns to favor are not in this metal itself, but in the beaten-down stocks of its miners.
We really walk the walk in buying low and selling high, buying sectors cheap when they are hated like the gold stocks today.
This hardcore contrarian strategy has won amazing gains for our subscribers.
Since 2001, all 700 stock trades recommended in our newsletters have averaged annualized realized gains of +21.
The bottom line is Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles are not bearish for gold as is widely believed today.
Gold 5 dramatically in the last rate-hike cycle in the mid-2000s, and rocketed higher during the most extreme rate-hike cycles in history in the 1970s.
Higher rates are actually bullish for gold.
Contrary to the popular myth, gold is not and has never been a yield play.
Investors diversify capital into gold when conventional stock and bond markets are weak.
And Fed-rate-hike cycles hurt stocks and bonds on multiple fronts, greatly ramping investment demand for gold.
Adam Hamilton, CPA September 4, 2015.

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